How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19

This video made possible with support of Brilliant - the first 200 subscribers to go to get 20% off a Premium subscription to Brilliant.
Go to to explore the graph from the video yourself!
Grant's 3Blue1Brown Video: Exponential Growth and Epidemics:
Aatish's Exponential/Logistic Curve-Fitting Site:
Data Source:
Our World in Data Page on Coronavirus:
How many tests for COVID-19 are being performed around the world?
Understanding logarithmic scales:
What we can learn from the countries winning the coronavirus fight:
(Great explainer on log scales and growth curves explained in the context of COVID-19 in different countries)
This video is a collaboration with Aatish Bhatia about how to see the COVID-19 tipping point - we present a better way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in "phase space" - plotting the growth rate against the cumulative cases, rather than either of these against time.
Support MinutePhysics on Patreon!
Link to Patreon Supporters:

MinutePhysics is on twitter - @minutephysics
And facebook -

Minute Physics provides an energetic and entertaining view of old and new problems in physics -- all in a minute!

Created by Henry Reich



  • Methe MeticiansMethe Meticians15 saatler önce
  • Make a video answering this question: Is AI smarter than us?

    Drawings And ScienceDrawings And Science22 saatler önce
  • The Philippines is handling this horribly. We don't even know how our curve looks because the government won't conduct mass testing as adequate levels. And we're relaxing quarantine measures (after THREE MONTHS) before we've even seen any evidence that the curve is flattening.

    Vito CVito CGün önce
  • Roses are red violets are blue why does the Karen think covid-19 is just the ordinary flu

    Balesy10plays YtBalesy10plays YtGün önce
  • Can you revisit with current data and talk about why so many countries demonstrate exponential decay, but not USA? I also tried looking at new cases as ppm and displayed not as absolute numbers but rate of change. There appears to be a period "bump" approximately every 7 days. Is this real or a result of how data is collected?

    Douglas PowellDouglas PowellGün önce
  • How's india doing ?Plz reply

    snehalkumar padghanesnehalkumar padghaneGün önce
  • Lately, Republicans have been using the Total Cases statistic to argue that blue states have a worse response to this pandemic than red states. This video beautifully explains why changes in New Cases is the most relevant statistic if we want to talk about a given government's response to this pandemic.

    Paul T SjordalPaul T Sjordal2 gün önce
    • This does not make the same calculation the Minutephysics channel suggests, but it does show changes in new cases over time broken down by state.

      Paul T SjordalPaul T Sjordal2 gün önce
  • Two months later, and I'm still checking this graph on a daily basis. I've noticed that rather than a flat or smooth curve, my state's version of "leveling out" is a series of dips where the weekly infection rate is between 500 to 600 new cases, and peaks where it's in the upper 700's. That made me wonder: since going out to restock my fridge / pantry is unavoidable, is it safer to go out during a dip or a peak? Are there any epidemiologists who've worked this out with previous infectious diseases?

    Jennifer BeveridgeJennifer Beveridge2 gün önce
  • Pennsylvania department of health has adopted this graphic animation!

    choreomaniacchoreomaniac3 gün önce
  • And another Indian!

    Arvind NandeArvind Nande3 gün önce
  • The graph (and video) should be modified by doing a log plot of new reported deaths per million versus a log plot of total reported deaths per million. In the absence of that it is quite misleading and is virtually certain to lead to widespread misunderstanding.

    m mandrewam mandrewa3 gün önce
  • I like this a lot. It seems like a good idea. But where the heck is the follow-up? Since this important you should be updating it at least once a week. You don't have to do it yourself, just modify the intro, not the video, but the blub below the video, by posting a link to someone else that is doing this.

    m mandrewam mandrewa3 gün önce
    • Ok, I've found it. See The US fell off the line in the first half of April. And I believe that graph and the graph in this minutephysics video would be improved if it did a log/log plot of new reported deaths per million versus total reported deaths per million. As it is this plot falsely makes it appear as if many countries that are not doing well, like for instance Belgium, are doing very well, simply and only because they are small.

      m mandrewam mandrewa3 gün önce
  • .

    DuncanDuncan4 gün önce
  • the aatishb site seems down :( could you reupload the covidtrends data and graphs to some other place? thanks!

    houndarchon1houndarchon14 gün önce
  • You can make this Juice at home to attack Covid-19

    Hamisi AbdallahHamisi Abdallah4 gün önce
  • Oh yeah China successfully contained the virus? I doubt that

    Gordon GMGordon GM5 gün önce
  • Why you stoped uploading

    Initially IntellectualInitially Intellectual5 gün önce
  • “In these uncertain times, times can be a little uncertain. And when times are uncertain it can be hard to know for certain what time it is” - Ryan George

    Jesse WoodJesse Wood5 gün önce
  • 1:31 OMG THAT TOOK SO LONG TO CAPTURE "*Hertzsprung-Russell, anyone?"

    BugPvP :pBugPvP :p6 gün önce
  • That might as well be a plot of China's credibility... DROPPING LIKE A ROCK!

    Randy SmithRandy Smith6 gün önce
  • My country: *I AM MEDICINE* My country: South Korea

    Jinhong PARKJinhong PARK6 gün önce
  • Covid 19 is ending in Australia

    Kalan SaundersKalan Saunders6 gün önce
    • Yay!

      peppercorn owlpeppercorn owl4 gün önce
  • What a fantastic video! Thanks so much for your time!!

    Eben VisherEben Visher6 gün önce
  • Chinese data are fake

    王荺勝王荺勝7 gün önce
  • well, I'm from china and now an American university student, and I stay hometown now, wait for maybe fall semester back. we all don't believe the real case turns to absolute 0, but from February everyone from Wuhan or outside travels to another place will be stayed at home 14 days to confirm(no matter you have any symptom)if you get COVID. and from February one family only got 2day once going out chance for buying some food. the government may or must hide some cases but in china what CCP(you remind this word)say, most Chinese will follow and do even they don't agree with a lot... so all people in China don't have any outside action from February, the Wuhan get "city lockdown"(you can't leave your city absolutely anyway) I can't trust the sudden fall of the case but the increase or we actually be lower than many countries I think...south Korea did something likely, they lock their country. I love America and for china not to the government lot, I love our people...some doctors work nearly 20 days and sleep totally less than 20hour to save people...that's a challenge to everyone 希望全世界所有国家的人民早日摆脱这场灾难(best wishes for all people around the world get rid of this disaster ASAP )

    刘娅刘娅7 gün önce
  • Could you make another video with these sort of graphs, to show which countries are recovering well and which aren't? It's the best way I've seen so far.

    Alexander JacksonAlexander Jackson8 gün önce
  • China is LYING !!!!

    Eva LamEva Lam8 gün önce
    • That's true, the CCP has lied again and again, ten million people have died here, come and save us plz ,XD

      karenkaren8 gün önce
  • Here is a powerful source of understanding. and yes it is more help than the news or government in understanding

    nitchvideonitchvideo8 gün önce
  • Don't want to shit on your parade but China is most likely lying. Great video though

    John the GreekJohn the Greek8 gün önce
  • I was not expecting a cogent, clear, informative video, but that's what I got! Thanks!!

    Freeda PeepleFreeda Peeple8 gün önce
  • I keep coming back to get the link to the chart, hoping the US marker is gonna plummet

    Benjamin GencoBenjamin Genco8 gün önce
    • And I was right. I've tracked it down and the US data begins to fall off that line sometime in the first half of April.

      m mandrewam mandrewa3 gün önce
    • I'm pretty certain it has. This graph and video are from two months ago, when the American epidemic had just begun. In fact I'll bet the US data plummeted over a month ago, back in the first half of April.

      m mandrewam mandrewa3 gün önce
  • This is a media-manufactured plandemic to further destroy the middle class and create a monopolistic dystopia. More people die of smoking, heart disease and cancer than this virus but the elites control the media narrative and, consequently, are controlling the sheep. I am so pissed off

    Jewelry BagJewelry Bag8 gün önce
  • March 24: this video was filmed March 25: highest exponential growth point in US March 26: start of exponential growth decline in US March 27: this video premiered

    wojeffwojeff8 gün önce
  • They didn’t include Taiwan tho

    Eugenia SumEugenia Sum9 gün önce
    • I think emphasis was shown on countries with significant case totals. It's there and now in the main view too (good work Taiwan!)!

      wojeffwojeff8 gün önce
  • Please provide a updated version; same message new graphs. The presentation of the animated "waves of data populating the Logarithm plane is excellent!. If made current, it could demonstrate the increasing hope many need.

    Bern MetroBern Metro9 gün önce
    • @wojeff Ok thank you again. It me a few minutes to figure out what they were doing and to find the plot of new reported deaths versus total reported deaths. Here's the problem. Why not normalize the data? That is divide the numbers on each axis by the population of the country. That would make it possible to compare countries. As it is right now, it makes it appear that the United States is doing very badly, when this is largely an artifact of it being both the largest country plotted plus having more complete data.

      m mandrewam mandrewa3 gün önce
    • @wojeff Thanks!

      m mandrewam mandrewa3 gün önce

      wojeffwojeff8 gün önce
  • Nice

    Jorge CossaJorge Cossa9 gün önce
  • The one caveat and maybe most important is that confirmed cases is such an unreliable measure since countries have varying levels of testing and testing is inaccurate. I feel like a new number of deaths vs confirmed deaths graph would be a more realistic trend.

    Mario ZMario Z9 gün önce
    • That was addressed in the video. Counterpoint, you can't have deaths if you don't have cases (so grim!). They have done that for deaths here:

      wojeffwojeff8 gün önce
  • 6:26 please pronounce the names correctly - T in Bhatia (spelt wrong in vid) is different from t in Aatish (correctly spelt in vid). GoogleTranslate says it right:

    Yash Pal GoyalYash Pal Goyal11 gün önce
    • otherwise a really nice video and thanks for bringing him in my notice. The site contains some really cool things that i am looking forward to experiment with some day.

      Yash Pal GoyalYash Pal Goyal11 gün önce
  • Statisticians: "Alright guys! It's our time to shine!"

    Arwah SapiArwah Sapi11 gün önce

    Fez PaladinFez Paladin11 gün önce
  • Hey you haven't made new video yet Where are you?

    sk Farhansk Farhan13 gün önce
  • And post-viral effects.

    John HailstoneJohn Hailstone13 gün önce
  • Do a vid on if earth had 2 moons.....

    LIL JON'SLIL JON'S13 gün önce
  • >implying the CCP will give accurate information about anything

    IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴIɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ13 gün önce
  • Diseases are a mechanism of evolution.

    tom091178tom09117814 gün önce
  • 중국은 조작인거 아시죠?

    Tae-young KimTae-young Kim14 gün önce
  • America:vrroomm vrroommm hell yea im going fast af China:oi, im doing 2nd wave of covid 19 lets see how it goes

    North KoreaNorth Korea14 gün önce
    • Russia: Cyka Blyat

      no nameno name6 gün önce
    • Brazil: Hey Hey wait for me.

      Wendull 81Wendull 818 gün önce
  • I would rather know how many are sick and how sick the positives are. As long as you keep testing the number of cases will increase....but if its rare that positives are sick enough to require hospitalizations, that's what is important to me.

    52marli52marli14 gün önce
  • You're an idiot. Your pseudoscience just tries to connect popular topics to some random concept in physics for views. You're a hack.

    Dodger YasselDodger Yassel15 gün önce
  • Is this the guy who had a whole video about using cats to power Norway? Yeah it is.

    khoen Da bosskhoen Da boss15 gün önce
  • Total bulls**t by another person infected with Digital Narcissism peddling unicorn feces. Nobel laureate Pro. Michael Levitt studied Covid case growth rates starting with Wuhan and showed that the reported growth rates never achieved "exponential" slope, used 2nd derivative standard, and this mistaken assumption was why Neil Ferguson's initial mortality estimates were pure bolux. Covid case growth rates are about as exponential as the hits on this web-page.

    Jean PoutineJean Poutine15 gün önce
  • This is a great video. Perhaps even the best I've seen in the realm of Covid-19 coverage and understanding. I would love to see the timelapse graph updated for the end of May or beginning of June.

    Davin RiedstraDavin Riedstra16 gün önce

      Mister CompleMister Comple14 gün önce
  • To make the gaphs look better imagine that humans are the disease.

    Parakmi IParakmi I16 gün önce
  • can u please say which animation software did u usesd for ur video?

    pragadeesh svpragadeesh sv16 gün önce
  • COVID-19: *_exists_* Korea CDC: *_So you have chosen D E A T H_*

  • this graph reveals how absolutely shockingly insufficient the US response has been. oh.. my god..

    RinRin17 gün önce
    • your comment reveals how absolutely shockingly inept you are at understanding data

      Mister CompleMister Comple14 gün önce
  • China... Success?! HAH what a joke.

    jokinabadsbsjokinabadsbs17 gün önce
  • US isn't tough

    CircleDrawingCircleDrawing18 gün önce
  • 국뽕...

    김철수김철수19 gün önce
  • Nobody believes the numbers out of China...

    Jacob E OwensJacob E Owens20 gün önce
  • "don't plot against time" that's a life hack right there

    Simranjeet singh matharooSimranjeet singh matharoo20 gün önce
  • Chinas deaths are lies. There must be more deaths than the rate it apparantly is right now. The virus came from there!

    what is lifewhat is life20 gün önce
    • Yes, you are right, a billion people have died here

      karenkaren8 gün önce
  • Can’t believe Chinas data. They lied to us.

    Rachel’s rants I.Rachel’s rants I.20 gün önce
  • Imagine believing China’s reported numbers...

    AGRAGR20 gün önce
  • im s. korean myself but i have to disagree with this. i dont even trust south korean statistics of coronavirus. they actually gave up the test but are using it politically for the sake of their support. all the media are saying koreans are fucking best and never criticize or analyze about the numbers. we are fucked. literally. fucked.

    소고기커피소고기커피21 gün önce
  • Hey ! You forget Vietnam, a country with 95 millions people . 0 dead

    Paul MatencioPaul Matencio22 gün önce
  • Please do more covid data vids, or share links to more content like this. Thankyou.

    Naomi HardingNaomi Harding22 gün önce
  • What is amazing is that, even with under reported numbers, the graph still shows if growth is in exponential phase or not. Government would need to "exponentially" cheat to fake falling out of the curve...

    Ciron SoauvCiron Soauv22 gün önce
  • @minutephysics Doesn't the graph look similar because the logarithmic scale is too big to measure(comparative minor) deviations? It's like differentiating 2 stars in the sky, despite being very different in size they would look more or less similar, like a dot. Kindly enlighten.

    Bigdatamonk Inc.Bigdatamonk Inc.23 gün önce
  • Clearly something wrong with Japan figures, no?

    banbanrocksbanbanrocks23 gün önce
    • It could just be a culture thing. Japan is a lot more hands off country that actually listens to their government about facemasks and social distancing.

      Russ WilkieRuss Wilkie19 gün önce
How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19